Message 23104 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Tue, 26 May 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <14238_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260526/1410Z 31678@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260526/1409Z 17861@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260526/1404Z 2551@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260526/1232Z 14238@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 261231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 26-May 28 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 26-May 28 2026
May 26 May 27 May 28
00-03UT 2.33 2.67 3.00
03-06UT 1.33 3.67 3.67
06-09UT 1.67 3.00 3.00
09-12UT 2.00 2.67 2.67
12-15UT 2.00 2.33 2.00
15-18UT 1.67 2.00 1.67
18-21UT 1.67 2.33 2.67
21-00UT 1.67 2.67 1.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 26-May 28 2026
May 26 May 27 May 28
S1 or greater 50% 5% 5%
Rationale: A return to S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels is
possible on 26 May due to the flaring potential of the visible disk, the
activity level of old Region 4436 beyond the western limb, and the
current elevated greater than 10 MeV proton flux.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 26-May 28 2026
May 26 May 27 May 28
R1-R2 35% 35% 35%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 28 May due to the flaring potential on the visible disk.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
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