Message 22892 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Fri, 22 May 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <13857_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N2MH|K5DAT|K5DAT|WW6Q|W9GM|KA3BVJ|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260522/1421Z 31555@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260522/1420z @:N2MH.#NNJ.NJ.USA.NOAM [via AREDN Mesh] jnos 2.0p $:13857_N4SD
R:260522/1414Z @:K5DAT.NEWI.WI.USA.NA [ELK Grove Village, IL USA] #:5983 XrLin505c
R:260522/1414Z 38818@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260522/1413Z 53261@WW6Q.#NEIN.IN.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260522/1413Z 494@W9GM.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260522/1413Z 81718@KA3BVJ.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQ1.4.65
R:260522/1407Z 2388@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260522/1232Z 13857@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 221231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 22-May 24 2026 is 2.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 22-May 24 2026
May 22 May 23 May 24
00-03UT 1.33 2.33 1.67
03-06UT 1.67 2.67 1.67
06-09UT 1.67 2.33 1.33
09-12UT 1.67 1.67 1.33
12-15UT 0.67 1.67 1.33
15-18UT 1.67 2.00 1.33
18-21UT 2.00 2.33 1.33
21-00UT 2.67 2.33 1.67
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 22-May 24 2026
May 22 May 23 May 24
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 22 2026 1029 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 22-May 24 2026
May 22 May 23 May 24
R1-R2 25% 25% 25%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There exists a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts over 22-24 May.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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