Message 22640 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Tue, 19 May 26 00:31:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <13619_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260520/2124Z 31393@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260519/1357Z 17400@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260519/1353Z 2245@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260519/0031Z 13619@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 190031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 19-May 21 2026 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 19-May 21 2026
May 19 May 20 May 21
00-03UT 4.33 2.33 2.67
03-06UT 5.33 (G1) 2.33 2.00
06-09UT 3.67 2.00 2.33
09-12UT 2.67 2.00 2.33
12-15UT 2.00 2.00 2.33
15-18UT 2.00 2.00 2.33
18-21UT 3.00 2.00 2.33
21-00UT 3.33 2.00 2.67
Rationale: Isolated periods of up to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are
possible on 19 May due to a potential glancing blow from a CME that left
the Sun on 16 May.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 19-May 21 2026
May 19 May 20 May 21
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 19-May 21 2026
May 19 May 20 May 21
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
through 21 May.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
← Return to Bulletin List