Message 22402 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Fri, 15 May 26 00:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <13245_N4SD>
Path: N2MH4|N3MEL|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|N4SD
R:260515/0713Z 31227@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260515/0712Z 17119@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260515/0704Z 51206@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260515/0704Z 67208@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260515/0659Z 2021@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260515/0032Z 13245@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
FXXX10 KWNP 150031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 May 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 15-May 17 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 15-May 17 2026
May 15 May 16 May 17
00-03UT 4.00 4.33 3.00
03-06UT 5.67 (G2) 5.00 (G1) 4.67 (G1)
06-09UT 4.00 3.67 3.33
09-12UT 3.67 3.33 3.00
12-15UT 3.67 3.33 3.00
15-18UT 3.67 3.33 3.67
18-21UT 4.00 3.33 3.33
21-00UT 3.67 3.33 2.67
Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected
through 17 May due to the anticipated arrival of a negative polarity
high speed stream.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-19 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 15-May 17 2026
May 15 May 16 May 17
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 15-May 17 2026
May 15 May 16 May 17
R1-R2 40% 30% 25%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
15-16 May, decreasing to a slight chance on 17 May.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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