Message 20547 in SPACWX.USA
From: N4SD
Date: Thu, 09 Apr 26 12:32:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACWX.USA
Subject: Space Weather 3-Day Forecast
Message-ID: <10811_N4SD>
Path: K7EK|KI0BK|N9SEO|WW6Q|W9GM|KA3BVJ|KA3VSP|N4SD
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FXXX10 KWNP 091231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Apr 09 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 09-Apr 11 2026 is 5.33 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 09-Apr 11 2026
Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11
00-03UT 1.67 2.33 5.33 (G1)
03-06UT 1.00 5.00 (G1) 4.00
06-09UT 2.00 4.33 4.00
09-12UT 1.33 3.67 3.33
12-15UT 2.00 2.67 3.67
15-18UT 1.67 2.67 4.00
18-21UT 1.67 3.67 4.67 (G1)
21-00UT 1.67 4.33 4.67 (G1)
Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are likely on 10 and
11 Apr due to positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream onset.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 09-Apr 11 2026
Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11
S1 or greater 10% 5% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight and declining chance for the greater than
10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm level
09-11 Apr primarily due to the complexity of Region 4409 and its
forthcoming rotation off the visible disk.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 09 2026 0845 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 09-Apr 11 2026
Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr 11
R1-R2 30% 20% 20%
R3 or greater 10% 5% 1%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
on 09 Apr with a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts 10-11 Apr and for R3 (Strong) or greater events through 11 Apr
primarily due to the development of Regions 4409 and 4414.
------
73 de Sperry N4SD
N4SD@N4SD.#TIDE.VA.USA.NOAM
Received via NOAA GOES-East satellite downlink
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