Message 29516 in SPACE.USA
From: N3MEL
Date: Sun, 06 Sep 26 22:48:00 Z
Newsgroups: SPACE.USA
Subject: NOAA GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OBSERVATION AND FORECAST
Message-ID: <26268_N3MEL>
Path: N2NOV|N3MEL
R:260906/2249z @:N2NOV.#RICH.NY.USA.NOAM $:26268_N3MEL
R:260906/2248Z 26268@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
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WINLINK / PACKET RADIO BULLETIN
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FOR (TARGET) : SPACE @ USA BULLETIN #: 001
FROM : N3MEL PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE
DATE/TIME : 2026-09-06 2246Z
SUBJECT : NOAA GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OBSERVATION AND FORECAST
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BULLETIN TEXT:
:PRODUCT: 3-DAY FORECAST
:ISSUED: 2026 SEP 06 1230 UTC
# PREPARED BY THE U.S. DEPT. OF COMMERCE, NOAA, SPACE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER
#
A. NOAA GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OBSERVATION AND FORECAST
THE GREATEST OBSERVED 3 HR KP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS 1 (BELOW NOAA
SCALE LEVELS).
THE GREATEST EXPECTED 3 HR KP FOR SEP 06-SEP 08 2026 IS 4.67 (NOAA
SCALE
G1).
NOAA KP INDEX BREAKDOWN SEP 06-SEP 08 2026
SEP 06 SEP 07 SEP 08
00-03UT 1.33 3.33 4.00
03-06UT 1.33 2.00 4.00
06-09UT 1.33 2.00 4.67 (G1)
09-12UT 1.33 3.00 4.67 (G1)
12-15UT 1.33 3.00 4.67 (G1)
15-18UT 1.33 3.33 4.00
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18-21UT 1.33 3.67 3.67
21-00UT 1.67 4.00 3.33
RATIONALE: ISOLATED G1 (MINOR) PERIODS ARE LIKELY IF THE CMES FROM 05
SEP IMPACT EARTH AS FORECAST.
B. NOAA SOLAR RADIATION ACTIVITY OBSERVATION AND FORECAST
SOLAR RADIATION, AS OBSERVED BY NOAA GOES-18 OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
WAS
ABOVE S-SCALE STORM LEVEL THRESHOLDS.
SOLAR RADIATION STORM FORECAST FOR SEP 06-SEP 08 2026
SEP 06 SEP 07 SEP 08
S1 OR GREATER 75% 10% 10%
RATIONALE: THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DECREASING TOWARDS BACKGROUND LEVELS THROUGH EARLY 08 SEP, WITH A
SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR S1 (MINOR) LEVELS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
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C. NOAA RADIO BLACKOUT ACTIVITY AND FORECAST
RADIO BLACKOUTS REACHING THE R1 LEVELS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE LARGEST WAS AT SEP 05 2026 1518 UTC.
RADIO BLACKOUT FORECAST FOR SEP 06-SEP 08 2026
SEP 06 SEP 07 SEP 08
R1-R2 20% 20% 20%
R3 OR GREATER 5% 5% 5%
RATIONALE: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR R1-R2 (MINOR-MODERATE) RADIO
BLACKOUTS THROUGH 08 SEP.
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