Message 30421 in SITREP.USA.NOAM
From: VA2OPS
Date: Mon, 21 Sep 26 09:07:00 Z
Newsgroups: SITREP.USA.NOAM
Subject: SITREP ENSO_US
Message-ID: <14605_VA2OPS>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N3MEL|VA2OPS
R:260921/1401Z 37505@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260921/1400Z 21124@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260921/1355Z 8471@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260921/1351Z 27478@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260921/0907Z 14605@VA2OPS.#MTL.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
USA EL NINO FORECAST & CLIMATE OUTLOOK
EL NINO DEVELOPMENT: El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than
90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere
fall and winter 2026-27. The forecast for the 2026–2027 El Niño is
of such historic severity that the World Meteorological
Organization has reported it will be the largest El Niño in at
least 1,000 years.
WINTER 2026-2027 OUTLOOK: December 2026 through February 2027 shows
a pronounced split between warmer conditions across much of the
northern United States and wetter conditions across large portions
of the South and West. NOAA favors above-normal precipitation
across a broad portion of the southern United States and parts of
the West, with the strongest signals extending across Southern
California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, the Gulf Coast and
Southeast.
SUMMER 2026 FORECAST: Summer will be hot, peaking in early and mid-
June, mid-July, and late August, with above-normal rainfall.
Northeast Winter will be milder than normal with below-average
precipitation and snowfall, though early February could be snowy.
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK REGIONAL: The NOAA seasonal precipitation
outlook for November 2026 through January 2027 shows a higher
probability for below normal precipitation for parts of Idaho,
Oregon, Washington, and a higher probability for above normal
precipitation for much of Alaska.
SOURCES: NOAA, National Weather Service, Farmers' Almanac
INFO ONLY, UNVERIFIED, NO LIABILITY FOR ACCURACY.
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