Message 30335 in SITREP.USA.NOAM
From: VA2OPS
Date: Sun, 20 Sep 26 09:07:00 Z
Newsgroups: SITREP.USA.NOAM
Subject: SITREP ENSO_US
Message-ID: <14514_VA2OPS>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|N3IP|KA3VSP|N3MEL|VA2OPS
R:260920/1307Z 37449@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260920/1307Z 21020@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260920/1305Z 75037@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260920/1305Z 8401@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260920/1301Z 27321@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260920/0907Z 14514@VA2OPS.#MTL.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
USA EL NINO FORECAST & CLIMATE OUTLOOK
ENSO STATUS: El Niño is strengthening with greater than 90% chance
of a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter
2026-27. Transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral expected by May
2026.
US WINTER IMPACT: Much of the country likely to see warmer-than-
normal temperatures this fall. States with highest probability of
above-average warmth October-December are those furthest north
plus California and Nevada.
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK: NOAA seasonal precipitation outlook for
November 2026 through January 2027 shows higher probability for
below normal precipitation in parts of Idaho, Oregon, Washington,
and higher probability for above normal precipitation in much of
Alaska.
HURRICANE FORECAST: 2026 Atlantic season 75-percent chance of being
below normal due to strengthening El Niño increasing wind shear.
Central Pacific hurricane season 70-percent chance of above-normal
with five to 13 tropical cyclones possible.
SOURCES: NOAA, The Hill, National Weather Service
INFO ONLY, UNVERIFIED, NO LIABILITY FOR ACCURACY.
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