Message 30290 in SITREP.USA.NOAM
From: VA2OPS
Date: Sat, 19 Sep 26 09:07:00 Z
Newsgroups: SITREP.USA.NOAM
Subject: SITREP ENSO_US
Message-ID: <14459_VA2OPS>
Path: N2MH4|NS2B|WG3K|WW6Q|W9GM|WA2UET|K5DAT|N2NOV|N3MEL|VA2OPS
R:260919/1403Z 37404@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260919/1402Z 1868@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260919/1341Z 40732@WG3K.#SMD.MD.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260919/1341Z 59751@WW6Q.#NEIN.IN.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260919/1340Z 10223@W9GM.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260919/1340Z 50969@WA2UET.#ENY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.23
R:260919/1339Z 53744@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260919/1338z @:N2NOV.#RICH.NY.USA.NOAM $:14459_VA2OPS
R:260919/1329Z 27198@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260919/0907Z 14459@VA2OPS.#MTL.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
USA EL NINO FORECAST & CLIMATE OUTLOOK
ENSO STATUS: El Niño strengthening with greater than 90% chance of
very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter
2026-27. Forecast severity potentially historic—largest El Niño in
at least 1,000 years per WMO.
WINTER OUTLOOK: California, Arizona, New Mexico, most of Colorado,
and Southeast show above-normal precipitation odds, matching El
Niño storm track. Typical El Niño winter jet stream shifts
southward, bringing storm track over southern tier US.
SUMMER IMPACTS: El Niño summer patterns show robust cool signal from
northern Rockies to Great Lakes. Northern Hemisphere summer
temperatures in east-central Pacific among highest on record,
predicted to exceed past powerful El Niños.
PEAK TIMING: El Niño peak expected December 2026 through February
2027, weakening through spring 2027.
SOURCES: NOAA, WMO, Columbia University Climate School
INFO ONLY, UNVERIFIED, NO LIABILITY FOR ACCURACY.
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