Message 30184 in SITREP.USA.NOAM
From: VA2OPS
Date: Thu, 17 Sep 26 09:07:00 Z
Newsgroups: SITREP.USA.NOAM
Subject: SITREP ENSO_US
Message-ID: <14361_VA2OPS>
Path: N2MH4|NS2B|N3IP|KA3VSP|KA3BVJ|W9GM|WA2UET|K5DAT|N2NOV|N3MEL|VA2OPS
R:260917/1334Z 37330@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260917/1333Z 1721@NS2B.#WNY.NY.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260917/1320Z 74839@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260917/1319Z 8242@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260917/1318Z 86979@KA3BVJ.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQ1.4.65
R:260917/1318Z 10065@W9GM.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260917/1318Z 50850@WA2UET.#ENY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.23
R:260917/1316Z 53447@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260917/1316z @:N2NOV.#RICH.NY.USA.NOAM $:14361_VA2OPS
R:260917/1313Z 27031@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260917/0907Z 14361@VA2OPS.#MTL.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
USA EL NINO FORECAST & CLIMATE OUTLOOK
ENSO STATUS: El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90%
chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall
and winter 2026-27. Probability of El Niño persisting through
winter 2026–27 is effectively certain — 100% for every three-month
season through January–March 2027.
US WINTER IMPACT: During a typical El Nino winter, the jet stream
over the north Pacific Ocean tends to shift southward, bringing
the storm track over the southern tier of the U.S. El Niño can
influence heavy precipitation, drought, heat, winter storms, and
hurricane activity.
SUMMER OUTLOOK: NOAA's latest ENSO forecast has an 80% chance of El
Niño conditions developing this summer, which indicates high
confidence. NOAA is currently forecasting a below-normal 2026
Atlantic hurricane season.
CLIMATE BASELINE: A 2026–27 El Niño is occurring on top of a roughly
1.3°C global warming baseline, which changes how the event
interacts with land temperatures, atmospheric moisture loading,
and extreme precipitation statistics.
SOURCES: NOAA, National Weather Service
INFO ONLY, UNVERIFIED, NO LIABILITY FOR ACCURACY.
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