Message 30115 in SITREP.USA.NOAM
From: VA2OPS
Date: Wed, 16 Sep 26 09:07:00 Z
Newsgroups: SITREP.USA.NOAM
Subject: SITREP ENSO_US
Message-ID: <14329_VA2OPS>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|KA3BVJ|W9GM|KD9KGQ|K5DAT|N2NOV|N3MEL|VA2OPS
R:260916/1326Z 37280@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260916/1326Z 20706@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260916/1317Z 8190@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260916/1317Z 86931@KA3BVJ.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQ1.4.65
R:260916/1316Z 9978@W9GM.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260916/1316Z 38144@KD9KGQ.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.24
R:260916/1314Z 53337@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260916/1313z @:N2NOV.#RICH.NY.USA.NOAM $:14329_VA2OPS
R:260916/1311Z 26953@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260916/0907Z 14329@VA2OPS.#MTL.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
USA EL NINO FORECAST & CLIMATE OUTLOOK
ENSO STATUS: Strong El Niño forecast with possibility of largest
event in 1,000 years. Greater than 90% chance of very strong event
during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.
WINTER OUTLOOK: Strong El Niño winters favor milder temperatures
across much of US and wetter conditions in parts of West and
South. Jet stream over north Pacific tends to shift southward,
bringing storm track over southern tier during El Niño winter.
PRECIPITATION PATTERN: Precipitation above normal in north but below
normal in south. Southern Southeast will have milder, drier winter
with above-normal temperatures.
PERSISTENCE PROBABILITY: Exceptionally high likelihood of nearly
100% that El Niño will persist through to February 2027.
SOURCES: NOAA, World Meteorological Organization
INFO ONLY, UNVERIFIED, NO LIABILITY FOR ACCURACY.
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