Message 30023 in SITREP.USA.NOAM
From: VA2OPS
Date: Mon, 14 Sep 26 09:07:00 Z
Newsgroups: SITREP.USA.NOAM
Subject: SITREP ENSO_US
Message-ID: <14268_VA2OPS>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|KA3BVJ|W9GM|WA2UET|K5DAT|N2NOV|N3MEL|VA2OPS
R:260914/1350Z 37181@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260914/1350Z 20561@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260914/1313Z 8100@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260914/1312Z 86833@KA3BVJ.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQ1.4.65
R:260914/1312Z 9822@W9GM.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260914/1312Z 50683@WA2UET.#ENY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.23
R:260914/1307Z 53076@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260914/1307z @:N2NOV.#RICH.NY.USA.NOAM $:14268_VA2OPS
R:260914/1304Z 26789@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260914/0907Z 14268@VA2OPS.#MTL.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
USA EL NINO FORECAST & CLIMATE OUTLOOK
ENSO STATUS: El Niño declared developed in early June 2026 and
expected to strengthen. WMO reports it will be largest El Niño in
at least 1,000 years. El Niño effectively certain through January-
March 2027, 97% through early spring 2027.
WINTER 2026-2027 OUTLOOK: NOAA predicts 63% chance of very strong El
Niño during November 2026 to January 2027. Typical El Niño winter
shifts jet stream southward, bringing storm track over southern US
tier. Seasonal precipitation outlook Nov 2026-Jan 2027 shows below
normal for parts of Idaho, Oregon, Washington; above normal for
Alaska.
SUMMER 2027 IMPACTS: El Niño summer ENSO analogs show robust cool
signal from northern Rockies to Great Lakes . Regional variations
expected; El Niño summer impacts generally weaker than winter
patterns.
SOURCES: NOAA, World Meteorological Organization
INFO ONLY, UNVERIFIED, NO LIABILITY FOR ACCURACY.
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