Message 29902 in SITREP.USA.NOAM
From: VA2OPS
Date: Sat, 12 Sep 26 09:07:00 Z
Newsgroups: SITREP.USA.NOAM
Subject: SITREP ENSO_US
Message-ID: <14200_VA2OPS>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|KA3VSP|N3MEL|VA2OPS
R:260912/1803Z 37094@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260912/1803Z 20428@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260912/1801Z 8009@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260912/1756Z 26676@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260912/0907Z 14200@VA2OPS.#MTL.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
USA EL NINO FORECAST & CLIMATE OUTLOOK
ENSO STATUS: El Nino has developed as of early June 2026 and is
expected to strengthen in the Pacific Ocean. World Meteorological
Organization reports it will be the largest El Nino in at least
1,000 years. 69% chance of historic event by October-December 2026
with three-month RONI value exceeding every El Nino on record
since 1950.
WINTER 2026-2027 TEMP/PRECIP: Updated temperature outlook favors
above-normal temperatures across large portion of continental US.
NOAA favors above-normal precipitation across southern United
States and parts of West, with strongest signals across Southern
California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Gulf Coast and Southeast.
PERSISTENCE FORECAST: WMO forecasts exceptionally high likelihood of
nearly 100% that El Nino will persist through February 2027. NOAA
predicts 63% chance of very strong El Nino during November 2026 to
January 2027.
SUMMER 2026 OUTLOOK: Official CPC outlooks show increased potential
for above normal temperatures this summer. Precipitation outlooks
show equal chances of above, near, or below normal rainfall with
no clear forecast signal.
SOURCES: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, World Meteorological
Organization, USDA Climate Hubs
INFO ONLY, UNVERIFIED, NO LIABILITY FOR ACCURACY.
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