Message 29815 in SITREP.USA.NOAM
From: VA2OPS
Date: Fri, 11 Sep 26 09:07:00 Z
Newsgroups: SITREP.USA.NOAM
Subject: SITREP ENSO_US
Message-ID: <14175_VA2OPS>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|N3IP|KA3VSP|N3MEL|VA2OPS
R:260911/1356Z 37045@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260911/1355Z 20318@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260911/1318Z 74447@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260911/1318Z 7935@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260911/1307Z 26588@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260911/0907Z 14175@VA2OPS.#MTL.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
USA EL NINO FORECAST & CLIMATE OUTLOOK
ENSO STATUS: El Niño developed in early June 2026 and is expected to
strengthen. El Niño probability through winter 2026-27 is
effectively certain at 100% through January-March 2027.
Forecasters predict 63% chance of very strong El Niño with sea
surface temperatures exceeding 2.0°C.
WINTER IMPACTS: Typical El Niño winter brings jet stream southward
over north Pacific, shifting storm track over southern US tier.
Northwest seasonal outlook November 2026-January 2027 shows below-
normal precipitation probability for Idaho, Oregon, Washington and
above-normal for Alaska.
SUMMER OUTLOOK: ENSO-neutral conditions favored through May-July
2026 with 55% probability, then El Niño development expected June-
August 2026 at 62% chance . Conditions remain neutral during peak
summer months before transition.
CLIMATE CONTEXT: 2026-27 El Niño occurs on 1.3°C global warming
baseline, changing interaction with land temperatures, atmospheric
moisture, and extreme precipitation statistics.
SOURCES: NOAA, USDA Climate Hubs, Columbia University IRI
INFO ONLY, UNVERIFIED, NO LIABILITY FOR ACCURACY.
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