Message 29685 in SITREP.USA.NOAM
From: VA2OPS
Date: Wed, 09 Sep 26 09:08:00 Z
Newsgroups: SITREP.USA.NOAM
Subject: SITREP ENSO_US
Message-ID: <14125_VA2OPS>
Path: N2MH4|WB4WPF|N3IP|KA3VSP|KA3BVJ|W9GM|WA2UET|K5DAT|N2NOV|N3MEL|VA2OPS
R:260909/1528Z 36889@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260909/1527Z 20112@WB4WPF.#SFL.FL.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260909/1458Z 74268@N3IP.#SEPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQK6.0.24
R:260909/1458Z 7769@KA3VSP.DE.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260909/1458Z 86573@KA3BVJ.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM BPQ1.4.65
R:260909/1457Z 9350@W9GM.#SWWI.WI.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260909/1457Z 50399@WA2UET.#ENY.NY.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.23
R:260909/1455Z 52413@K5DAT.#NEWI.WI.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260909/1455z @:N2NOV.#RICH.NY.USA.NOAM $:14125_VA2OPS
R:260909/1450Z 26440@N3MEL.#EPA.PA.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260909/0908Z 14125@VA2OPS.#MTL.QC.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
USA EL NINO FORECAST & CLIMATE OUTLOOK
ENSO STATUS: La Niña conditions have ended and the tropical Pacific
has returned to neutral conditions. El Niño is likely to emerge in
June-August 2026 with 62% chance and persist through at least end
of 2026.
WINTER 2025-26 FORECAST: La Niña is favored to continue into
Northern Hemisphere winter with transition to ENSO-neutral most
likely January-March 2026 at 61% chance. Precipitation tends to be
below-average across southern tier and wetter than average across
Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.
SUMMER 2026 OUTLOOK: El Niño expected to emerge June-August 2026
with 62% likelihood persisting through end of year. Strong El Niño
winters often favor milder temperatures across much of United
States and wetter conditions in parts of West and South.
CURRENT IMPACT: ENSO-neutral conditions most likely for Northern
Hemisphere spring and summer . Temperature impacts currently
minimal with neutral phase dominant through mid-2026.
SOURCES: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, National Weather Service
INFO ONLY, UNVERIFIED, NO LIABILITY FOR ACCURACY.
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