Message 30315 in OUTLOK.WW
From: HP2DFA
Date: Sun, 20 Sep 26 02:09:00 Z
Newsgroups: OUTLOK.WW
Subject: 7 DAY TROPICAL & PACIFIC OUTLOOK C.AMERICA SEP19
Message-ID: <2186_HP2DFA>
Path: N2MH4|VE3KPG|VE3CGR|PY2BIL|HP2DFA
R:260920/0316Z 37421@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260920/0316Z 1378@VE3KPG.#ECON.ON.CAN.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260920/0316Z 1543@VE3CGR.#SCON.ON.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260920/0315Z 54358@PY2BIL.SP.BRA.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260920/0209Z 2186@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24
Persistent strong vertical wind shear across the Caribbean basin prevents tropical waves from organizing into tropical depressions or storms. Active low-pressure development is currently displaced far to the north (Tropical Depression Six near the Azores) or well offshore in the open Eastern Pacific west of Mexico.
---
### **7-Day Regional Synoptic & Hazard Drivers**
| Basin / Region | Cyclonic Risk (7 Days) | Dominant Synoptic Driver | Primary Hazard Outlook |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **Western Caribbean** | **0 | Tropical Waves N.° 44 and N.° 45 transit | Heavy afternoon/nighttime convective showers, lightning. |
| **East Pacific (CA Coast)** | **0 | Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) oscillation | Orographic enhancement, localized flash flooding. |
---
### **Key Outlook Highlights**
1. **Tropical Wave Progression:**
* **Tropical Wave N.° 44:** Currently moving across Panama, Costa Rica, and southern Nicaragua. It will continue its westward track through early next week, keeping moisture convergence high across the southern half of the isthmus.
* **Tropical Wave N.° 45:** Currently moving across the Atlantic/Eastern Caribbean; anticipated to reach the Eastern Central American coastline (Panama/Guna Yala to Nicaragua) by midweek (**September 23–25**).
2. **ITCZ Position:**
* The Intertropical Convergence Zone will remain anchored near or just off the Pacific coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Daily onshore seabreeze convergence will trigger severe convective cells each afternoon and evening.
3. **Ground Saturation & Hydro-Meteorological Risks:**
* Because soil moisture levels across the **Cordillera Central (Panama/Costa Rica)**, **Sierra Madre (Guatemala)**, and **Volcanic Chain (El Salvador/Nicaragua)** are at or near maximum capacity, even moderate localized rain events carry an immediate risk of **landslides, mudslides, and rapid river flooding**.
PMAIL: HP2DFA@HP2DFA.COL.PAN.CEAM
EMAIL: HP2DFA@GMAIL.COM
← Return to Bulletin List