Message 30213 in OUTLOK.WW
From: HP2DFA
Date: Fri, 18 Sep 26 05:15:00 Z
Newsgroups: OUTLOK.WW
Subject: 7d TROPICAL & PACIFIC OUTLOOK C.AMERICA SEP18
Message-ID: <2120_HP2DFA>
Path: N2MH4|VE3KPG|VE3CGR|LU9DCE|PY2BIL|HP2DFA
R:260918/0826Z 37350@N2MH4.#SENC.NC.USA.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.24
R:260918/0826Z 1211@VE3KPG.#ECON.ON.CAN.NOAM BPQ6.0.25
R:260918/0825Z 1359@VE3CGR.#SCON.ON.CAN.NOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260918/0825Z 22289@LU9DCE.TOR.BA.ARG.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260918/0824Z 54316@PY2BIL.SP.BRA.SOAM LinBPQ6.0.25
R:260918/0515Z 2120@HP2DFA.#COL.PAN.CEAM BPQ6.0.24
**7-Day Tropical Weather Outlook (Central America & Surrounding Basins)**
*Valid: September 18 – September 25, 2026*
---
### Pacific Ocean Basin (Offshore Central America / East Pacific)
* **Active Systems & Disturbance Monitoring:**
* **Offshore Southwestern Mexico / Guatemala:** An area of low pressure is monitored well off the southwestern coast. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for gradual development over the next 7 days as the system drifts west-northwestward away from the Central American coast.
* **Impacts on Land:**
* **Moisture Transport & Rainfall:** Despite low cyclone formation chances near the coast, the broader low-pressure trough will continue to draw moist equatorial air (Monsoon Trough) northward. Expect scattered afternoon/evening convective thunderstorms and localized heavy downpours along the Pacific slopes of Costa Rica, Panama, and southern Nicaragua.
---
### Atlantic Ocean & Caribbean Sea Basin
* **Regional Activity:**
* The Caribbean Sea and Main Development Region (MDR) remain **exceptionally quiet**. Strong, widespread upper-level wind shear driven by the active El Niño event continues to suppress tropical cyclogenesis across the western and central Caribbean.
* **Probability of Tropical Cyclone Formation (7 Days):** **Near 0 across the entire Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Honduras.
* **Impacts on Land:**
* Typical mid-September tropical waves passing through the eastern/central Caribbean will produce localized showers and brief squalls along the Atlantic coasts of Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama, but no tropical depression or storm development is anticipated.
---
### Summary Outlook Matrix
| Basin / Region | 48-Hour Formation Chance | 7-Day Formation Chance | Primary Direct Impact / Hazard |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
Sistema de Monitoreo de Alertas Meteorologicas de Panama
PCARA - Grupo Digital C4FM Panama
www.pcara.net - www.c4fmpanama.org
PMAIL HP2DFA@HP2DFA.COL.PA.CEAM
EMAIL HP2DFA@GMAIL.COM
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