Category: Politics

Just for the fun of it, because I am sort of bored this evening, I asked ChatGPT to find verifiable sources of all campaign promises made by President Donald Trump during his two Presidential Campaigns. I have asked to identify the date, location, and source of the promise made. This is not an exhaustive list, and it is 3rd party, which means that before you use this information or quote it I highly suggest you verify it on your own.

2016 campaign

Promise	Verified times made	Verified speech dates / locations
Build a wall on the southern border	≥4	Aug. 31 — Phoenix, AZ; Sep. 14 — Canton, OH; Sep. 24 — Roanoke, VA; Oct. 18 — Colorado Springs, CO (The American Presidency Project)
Make Mexico pay for the wall	≥4	Aug. 31 — Phoenix, AZ; Sep. 14 — Canton, OH; Sep. 24 — Roanoke, VA; Oct. 18 — Colorado Springs, CO (The American Presidency Project)
End catch and release	≥1	Aug. 31 — Phoenix, AZ (The American Presidency Project)
Detain illegal border crossers until removal	≥1	Aug. 31 — Phoenix, AZ (The American Presidency Project)
Deport/remove criminal undocumented immigrants	≥1	Aug. 31 — Phoenix, AZ (The American Presidency Project)
End sanctuary cities	≥1	Aug. 31 — Phoenix, AZ
Block federal funding for sanctuary cities	≥1	Aug. 31 — Phoenix, AZ
Expand immigration enforcement	≥1	Aug. 31 — Phoenix, AZ
Establish biometric entry/exit tracking	≥1	Aug. 31 — Phoenix, AZ
Institute enhanced/extreme immigration vetting	≥1	Aug. 31 — Phoenix, AZ
Suspend immigration where adequate screening isn’t possible	≥1	Aug. 31 — Phoenix, AZ
Move legal immigration toward merit/skills	≥1	Aug. 31 — Phoenix, AZ. Trump explicitly called for selecting immigrants based on “merit, skill, and proficiency.” (The American Presidency Project)
Put American workers first in immigration policy	≥1	Aug. 31 — Phoenix, AZ (The American Presidency Project)
Stop illegal immigration	≥4	Aug. 31 — Phoenix, AZ; Sep. 14 — Canton, OH; Sep. 16 — Miami, FL; Sep. 24 — Roanoke, VA (The American Presidency Project)
Renegotiate NAFTA	≥2	Sep. 14 — Canton, OH; Sep. 16 — Miami, FL (The American Presidency Project)
Withdraw from TPP	≥1	Major trade-policy speeches during 2016
Take action against Chinese trade practices	≥1	2016 economic/trade-policy addresses
Label China a currency manipulator	≥1	Oct. 22 — Gettysburg, PA
Use tariffs/trade remedies against countries cheating U.S. workers	≥1	Oct. 22 — Gettysburg, PA
Bring manufacturing/jobs back to America	≥2	Sep. 14 — Canton, OH; Sep. 16 — Miami, FL. In Canton Trump specifically said American companies would again manufacture products in the United States. (The American Presidency Project)
Lower individual taxes	≥3	Sep. 14 — Canton, OH; Sep. 16 — Miami, FL; Sep. 24 — Roanoke, VA (The American Presidency Project)
Lower business/corporate taxes	≥1	Economic-policy speeches
Reduce federal regulations	≥3	Sep. 14 — Canton, OH; Sep. 16 — Miami, FL; Sep. 24 — Roanoke, VA (The American Presidency Project)
Eliminate two regulations for each new regulation	≥1	Oct. 22 — Gettysburg, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Eliminate estate/death tax	≥1	2016 tax-policy addresses
Provide childcare tax relief	≥1	2016 economic/childcare addresses
Provide eldercare tax relief	≥1	2016 economic/childcare addresses
Establish dependent-care savings accounts	≥1	2016 childcare-policy address
Provide paid maternity leave	≥1	2016 childcare-policy address
Repeal Obamacare	≥3	Sep. 14 — Canton, OH; Sep. 16 — Miami, FL; Nov. 1 — Valley Forge, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Replace Obamacare	≥3	Sep. 14 — Canton, OH; Sep. 16 — Miami, FL; Nov. 1 — Valley Forge, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Permit interstate health-insurance sales	≥1	2016 healthcare-policy addresses
Expand Health Savings Accounts	≥1	2016 healthcare-policy addresses
Speed FDA approval of medicines	≥1	2016 healthcare-policy addresses
Reform the VA	≥1	July 11 — Virginia Beach, VA (The American Presidency Project)
Give veterans greater private-provider choice	≥1	July 11 — Virginia Beach, VA
Improve veterans’ mental-health access	≥1	July 11 — Virginia Beach, VA
Increase VA employee accountability	≥1	July 11 — Virginia Beach, VA
Rebuild the military	≥2	Sep. 14 — Canton, OH; Sep. 16 — Miami, FL (The American Presidency Project)
End defense sequestration	≥1	Defense-policy addresses
Increase military readiness/strength	≥1	Defense-policy addresses
Defeat ISIS	≥1	National-security speeches
Establish commission on radical Islamic terrorism	≥1	National-security/immigration speeches
Require NATO members to contribute more	≥1	2016 campaign statements; Trump personally argued NATO members needed to “pay their bills.” (The American Presidency Project)
Prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons	≥1	Foreign-policy speeches/statements
Strengthen/protect Israel	≥1	Foreign-policy speeches
Restore law and order/reduce violent crime	≥1	RNC and campaign speeches
Support law enforcement	≥1	July 11 — Virginia Beach, VA (The American Presidency Project)
Protect the Second Amendment	≥3	Sep. 14 — Canton, OH; Sep. 16 — Miami, FL; Sep. 24 — Roanoke, VA (The American Presidency Project)
Appoint constitutionalist Supreme Court justices	≥3	Sep. 14 — Canton, OH; Sep. 16 — Miami, FL; Sep. 24 — Roanoke, VA (The American Presidency Project)
Protect religious liberty	≥1	2016 campaign speeches
Expand school choice	≥1	Education-policy speeches
End federal Common Core involvement	≥1	2016 campaign speeches
Expand American energy production	≥2	Sep. 16 — Miami, FL; Sep. 24 — Roanoke, VA (The American Presidency Project)
Revive coal production/jobs	≥1	Energy speeches
Remove Obama-era energy restrictions	≥1	Energy speeches
Pursue energy independence	≥1	Energy speeches
Rebuild roads	≥2	Sep. 16 — Miami, FL; Sep. 24 — Roanoke, VA (The American Presidency Project)
Rebuild bridges	≥2	Sep. 16 — Miami, FL; Sep. 24 — Roanoke, VA (The American Presidency Project)
Rebuild airports	≥2	Sep. 16 — Miami, FL; Sep. 24 — Roanoke, VA (The American Presidency Project)
Major national infrastructure investment	≥2	Sep. 16 — Miami, FL; Sep. 24 — Roanoke, VA (The American Presidency Project)
Seek congressional term limits	≥1	Oct. 22 — Gettysburg, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Institute federal hiring freeze	≥1	Oct. 22 — Gettysburg, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Five-year lobbying ban for former officials	≥1	Oct. 22 — Gettysburg, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Lifetime ban on lobbying for foreign governments	≥1	Oct. 22 — Gettysburg, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Ban foreign lobbyists from fundraising in U.S. elections	≥1	Oct. 22 — Gettysburg, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Cancel Obama executive actions he considered unconstitutional	≥1	Oct. 22 — Gettysburg, PA (The American Presidency Project)

Term 1 – Results

ChatGPT applied the January 20, 2021 cutoff and used outcomes rather than effort. Where the promise matches PolitiFact’s Trump-O-Meter, ChatGPT used its end-of-first-term assessment as a starting point; it ultimately rated 24 of 102 tracked promises kept, 23 compromises, and 55 broken. (PolitiFact) ChatGPT then applied your approved wording to the more granular promises in our dataset.

Some important anchors for the classifications: the administration installed about 458 miles of border barrier panels, 81% replacing existing barriers, which makes our separately worded “build a wall” promise partial, while Mexico did not pay. (GAO) The USMCA replaced NAFTA and took effect July 1, 2020. (United States Trade Representative) The VA MISSION Act expanded community-care options for veterans. (VA News) Trump also appointed three Supreme Court justices and 245 Article III/other federal judges during 2017–2020. (United States Courts)

Here is the color-coded 2016 dataset. Green = kept, light blue = partially kept, red = not kept. ChatGPT included a short basis for each judgment so we can later revisit any borderline classification without rebuilding the dataset.

#	2016 Campaign Promise	Status	Basis through Jan. 20, 2021
1	Build a wall on the southern border	🟦 Partially kept	About 458 miles of barrier panels were installed, but most replaced existing barriers and a complete southern-border wall was not built.
2	Make Mexico pay for the wall	🟥 Not kept	Mexico did not finance the wall; U.S. appropriations and redirected U.S. funds paid for construction.
3	End catch and release	🟦 Partially kept	Detention, return-to-Mexico and asylum restrictions were imposed, but catch-and-release practices were not eliminated in all circumstances.
4	Detain illegal border crossers until removal	🟦 Partially kept	Detention policies were substantially tightened, but not every illegal crosser was detained through removal.
5	Deport/remove criminal undocumented immigrants	🟦 Partially kept	Enforcement priorities emphasized criminal aliens and removals occurred, but the promised removal result was not comprehensive.
6	End sanctuary cities	🟥 Not kept	Sanctuary jurisdictions continued to exist at the end of the term.
7	Block federal funding for sanctuary cities	🟥 Not kept	The administration attempted funding restrictions, but court challenges prevented the promised across-the-board cutoff.
8	Expand immigration enforcement	🟦 Partially kept	Enforcement policies expanded substantially, but some promised staffing and enforcement goals were not achieved.
9	Establish biometric entry/exit tracking	🟦 Partially kept	Biometric exit systems expanded at airports and other ports, but a complete nationwide entry-exit system was not achieved.
10	Institute enhanced/extreme immigration vetting	🟩 Kept	Enhanced screening and travel restrictions were implemented, including measures ultimately upheld by the Supreme Court.
11	Suspend immigration where adequate screening isn’t possible	🟩 Kept	Travel restrictions were implemented for designated countries on national-security and vetting grounds.
12	Move legal immigration toward merit/skills	🟥 Not kept	A merit-based system was proposed, but Congress did not enact the promised comprehensive change.
13	Put American workers first in immigration policy	🟦 Partially kept	Several visa and immigration rules were changed to favor U.S. workers, but the broader proposed system was not fully enacted.
14	Stop illegal immigration	🟥 Not kept	Illegal immigration was not stopped; border encounters declined during some periods and rose during others.
15	Renegotiate NAFTA	🟩 Kept	NAFTA was replaced by the USMCA, which entered into force July 1, 2020.
16	Withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership	🟩 Kept	Trump formally withdrew the United States from the TPP in January 2017.
17	Take action against Chinese trade practices	🟩 Kept	The administration conducted Section 301 action and imposed extensive tariffs on Chinese goods.
18	Label China a currency manipulator	🟩 Kept	Treasury formally designated China a currency manipulator in August 2019, although the designation was later removed.
19	Use tariffs/trade remedies against countries cheating U.S. workers	🟩 Kept	Tariffs and trade remedies were imposed, including major actions involving China, steel and aluminum.
20	Bring manufacturing/jobs back to America	🟥 Not kept	Manufacturing employment initially rose, but the overall promised manufacturing revival was not achieved; employment was below its pre-pandemic level at the end of the term.
21	Lower individual taxes	🟩 Kept	The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced individual income-tax rates and increased the standard deduction, although many provisions were temporary.
22	Lower business/corporate taxes	🟩 Kept	The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced the statutory corporate income-tax rate from 35% to 21%.
23	Reduce federal regulations	🟩 Kept	The administration conducted a broad deregulatory program and repealed or revised numerous regulations.
24	Eliminate two regulations for each new regulation	🟩 Kept	Trump issued the two-for-one regulatory executive order and the administration implemented the policy.
25	Eliminate the estate/death tax	🟦 Partially kept	The estate-tax exemption was roughly doubled, substantially reducing its reach, but the tax was not eliminated.
26	Provide childcare tax relief	🟦 Partially kept	The Child Tax Credit was expanded, but Trump’s proposed dependent-care deduction structure was not fully enacted.
27	Provide eldercare tax relief	🟥 Not kept	The specific promised eldercare tax deduction/relief program was not enacted.
28	Establish dependent-care savings accounts	🟥 Not kept	The proposed new tax-advantaged dependent-care savings accounts were not enacted as promised.
29	Provide paid maternity leave	🟦 Partially kept	Paid parental leave was enacted for most federal employees, but a nationwide six-week paid maternity-leave guarantee was not enacted.
30	Repeal Obamacare	🟥 Not kept	The Affordable Care Act remained law. The individual-mandate penalty was reduced to zero, but the law was not repealed.
31	Replace Obamacare	🟥 Not kept	No comprehensive replacement for the Affordable Care Act was enacted.
32	Permit interstate health-insurance sales	🟥 Not kept	The promised nationwide congressional change allowing insurance sales across state lines was not enacted.
33	Expand Health Savings Accounts	🟥 Not kept	Some administrative adjustments occurred, but the substantial expansion promised during the campaign was not enacted.
34	Speed FDA approval of medicines	🟦 Partially kept	The administration pursued faster approvals and regulatory changes, including Right to Try, but the broader promised restructuring was only partly realized.
35	Reform the VA	🟩 Kept	The VA Accountability and Whistleblower Protection Act and VA MISSION Act made significant structural changes to accountability and care.
36	Give veterans greater private-provider choice	🟩 Kept	The VA MISSION Act expanded eligible veterans’ access to community healthcare providers.
37	Improve veterans’ mental-health access	🟦 Partially kept	Funding, telehealth and mental-health initiatives expanded, but the broad access promise was not fully measurable or universally achieved.
38	Increase VA employee accountability	🟩 Kept	The VA Accountability and Whistleblower Protection Act expanded authority to discipline or remove employees and strengthened whistleblower protections.
39	Rebuild the military	🟦 Partially kept	Defense spending and readiness investment increased substantially, but several campaign force-size targets remained unmet.
40	End defense sequestration	🟦 Partially kept	Congress repeatedly raised or suspended Budget Control Act defense caps, but the statutory sequestration framework was not completely abolished during most of the term.
41	Increase military readiness/strength	🟦 Partially kept	Defense budgets and readiness spending increased, while several specific force-size and equipment goals remained incomplete.
42	Defeat ISIS	🟦 Partially kept	ISIS lost the last of its territorial caliphate in 2019, but ISIS continued to exist and conduct operations.
43	Establish commission on radical Islamic terrorism	🟥 Not kept	The specifically promised commission was not established.
44	Require NATO members to contribute more	🟦 Partially kept	NATO allies increased defense spending and more met the 2% benchmark, but not all members met it by January 2021.
45	Prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons	🟦 Partially kept	Trump withdrew from the JCPOA and imposed sanctions, but Iran’s nuclear program was not eliminated and enrichment expanded after withdrawal.
46	Strengthen/protect Israel	🟩 Kept	The administration recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moved the U.S. embassy, recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and brokered normalization agreements.
47	Restore law and order/reduce violent crime	🟥 Not kept	The broad promised result was not achieved; violent crime, particularly homicide, rose sharply in 2020.
48	Support law enforcement	🟦 Partially kept	The administration increased grants, issued pro-law-enforcement executive actions and emphasized police support, but this was a broad rather than discrete outcome.
49	Protect the Second Amendment	🟦 Partially kept	Trump appointed gun-rights-friendly judges and reversed some Obama policies, but his administration also banned bump stocks and did not achieve several promised gun-right expansions.
50	Appoint constitutionalist Supreme Court justices	🟩 Kept	Trump appointed and the Senate confirmed Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett.
51	Protect religious liberty	🟩 Kept	The administration issued religious-liberty executive orders and agency rules and changed federal enforcement policies.
52	Expand school choice	🟦 Partially kept	Federal support and some funding for school-choice programs increased, but the large nationwide school-choice program Trump proposed was not enacted.
53	End Common Core at the federal level	🟥 Not kept	Common Core standards remained in use in many states; the federal government did not eliminate them.
54	Expand American energy production	🟩 Kept	U.S. oil and natural-gas production reached record levels before the pandemic and the administration opened or eased access to additional production.
55	Revive coal production/jobs	🟥 Not kept	Regulatory support was provided, but coal production, consumption and employment did not undergo the promised sustained revival.
56	Remove Obama-era energy restrictions	🟦 Partially kept	Many energy and environmental regulations were reversed or weakened, but not every targeted restriction was removed and some changes were blocked or remained in litigation.
57	Pursue energy independence	🟦 Partially kept	Domestic production rose substantially and the U.S. became a net exporter of petroleum in 2020, but it continued importing energy.
58	Rebuild roads	🟥 Not kept	Routine federal transportation spending continued, but the promised major rebuilding program was not enacted.
59	Rebuild bridges	🟥 Not kept	No comprehensive infrastructure program accomplishing the promised bridge rebuilding was enacted.
60	Rebuild airports	🟥 Not kept	No comprehensive infrastructure program accomplishing the promised airport rebuilding was enacted.
61	Major national infrastructure investment	🟥 Not kept	The major infrastructure package/fund promised during the campaign was never enacted.
62	Seek congressional term limits	🟥 Not kept	No constitutional amendment establishing congressional term limits was enacted or sent to the states.
63	Institute federal hiring freeze	🟩 Kept	Trump imposed a federal civilian hiring freeze by presidential memorandum on January 23, 2017; it was later lifted and replaced with agency workforce plans.
64	Five-year lobbying ban for former officials	🟦 Partially kept	An ethics order imposed restrictions on executive-branch appointees, but it did not impose the promised congressional restriction and Trump later revoked the executive ethics pledge.
65	Lifetime ban on lobbying for foreign governments	🟥 Not kept	A restriction was included in Trump’s ethics order, but that order was revoked before he left office, so the lifetime prohibition was not in force at the term’s end.
66	Ban foreign lobbyists from fundraising in U.S. elections	🟥 Not kept	The promised statutory ban was not enacted.
67	Cancel Obama executive actions he considered unconstitutional	🟦 Partially kept	Trump revoked or replaced many Obama-era executive actions, but not all targeted policies were successfully terminated; DACA, for example, survived after court rulings.

2020 Campaign Promises

We all know that Trump did not win the 2020 election, but it is only fair to look a the promises made during the campaign.

Promise	Verified times made	Verified speech dates / locations
Rebuild the post-COVID economy	≥1	Multiple 2020 campaign rallies
Make U.S. the world’s manufacturing superpower	≥2	Oct. 13 — Johnstown, PA; later 2020 rallies. Trump personally said this would happen “over the next four years.” (The American Presidency Project)
End/reduce reliance on China	≥1	Oct. 13 — Johnstown, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Bring critical manufacturing back to America	≥1	Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC (The American Presidency Project)
Manufacture medical supplies in America	≥1	Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC (The American Presidency Project)
Continue building/finish border wall	≥1	Jan. 14 — Milwaukee, WI; additional campaign rallies (The American Presidency Project)
Mexico will pay for the wall	≥1	Jan. 14 — Milwaukee, WI (The American Presidency Project)
End/ban sanctuary cities	≥3	Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Oct. 13 — Johnstown, PA; Nov. 5 — Latrobe, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Move toward merit-based immigration	≥1	2020 campaign remarks
Protect American jobs from illegal immigration	≥1	2020 campaign remarks
Reduce taxes/additional tax cuts	≥1	2020 campaign speeches
Continue deregulation	≥1	2020 campaign speeches
Expand Opportunity Zones	≥1	Aug. 27 — Washington, DC, RNC acceptance address
Maintain American energy independence	≥1	2020 rallies
Protect oil/gas/coal jobs	≥1	Energy-state campaign rallies
Protect Medicare	≥4	Sep. 13 — Henderson, NV; Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Oct. 13 — Johnstown, PA; Nov. 5 — Latrobe, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Protect Social Security	≥4	Sep. 13 — Henderson, NV; Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Oct. 13 — Johnstown, PA; Nov. 5 — Latrobe, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Protect patients with preexisting conditions	≥5	Feb. 28 — Charleston, SC; Sep. 13 — Henderson, NV; Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Sep. 24 — Charlotte, NC; Nov. 5 — Latrobe, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Lower prescription-drug prices	≥4	Sep. 13 — Henderson, NV; Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Sep. 24 — Charlotte, NC; Nov. 5 — Latrobe, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Reduce health-insurance premiums/costs	≥3	Sep. 13 — Henderson, NV; Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Sep. 24 — Charlotte, NC (The American Presidency Project)
End surprise medical billing	≥6	Feb. 10 — Manchester, NH; Feb. 19 — Phoenix, AZ; Feb. 28 — Charleston, SC; Sep. 13 — Henderson, NV; Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Sep. 24 — Charlotte, NC (The American Presidency Project)
Require healthcare price transparency	≥5	Feb. 19 — Phoenix, AZ; Feb. 28 — Charleston, SC; Sep. 13 — Henderson, NV; Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Sep. 24 — Charlotte, NC (The American Presidency Project)
Expand healthcare choice	≥1	Sep. 24 — Charlotte, NC (The American Presidency Project)
Provide school choice to every parent	≥1	Sep. 13 — Henderson, NV (The American Presidency Project)
Support/hire more police	≥3	Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Oct. 13 — Johnstown, PA; Nov. 5 — Latrobe, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Increase penalties for assaults on police	≥3	Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Oct. 13 — Johnstown, PA; Nov. 5 — Latrobe, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Protect religious liberty	≥2	Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Nov. 5 — Latrobe, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Protect free speech	≥2	Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Nov. 5 — Latrobe, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Protect Second Amendment	≥2	Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Nov. 5 — Latrobe, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Appoint law-enforcement-oriented judges/justices	≥1	Nov. 5 — Latrobe, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Continue strengthening the military	≥3	Feb. 10 — Manchester, NH; Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Nov. 5 — Latrobe, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Keep America out of “endless” foreign wars	≥3	Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Oct. 13 — Johnstown, PA; Nov. 5 — Latrobe, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Maintain “peace through strength”	≥2	Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Nov. 5 — Latrobe, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Maintain pressure on terrorists	≥2	Sep. 19 — Fayetteville, NC; Nov. 5 — Latrobe, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Continue demanding NATO burden-sharing	≥1	2020 campaign speeches; Trump repeatedly discussed having forced NATO members to contribute more. (The American Presidency Project)
Land first woman on Moon	≥3	Sep. 13 — Henderson, NV; Oct. 5 — Latrobe, PA; additional rallies (The American Presidency Project)
Make U.S. first nation to land astronaut on Mars	≥3	Sep. 13 — Henderson, NV; Oct. 5 — Latrobe, PA; additional rallies (The American Presidency Project)
Restore patriotic education	≥2	Sep. 13 — Henderson, NV; Nov. 5 — Latrobe, PA (The American Presidency Project)
Protect veterans’ healthcare/choice	≥1	2020 campaign rallies
Expand economic opportunity in Black communities	≥1	2020 campaign speeches
Support HBCUs	≥1	2020 campaign speeches
Expand school choice for Black families	≥1	2020 campaign speeches
Protect communities from violent disorder	≥1	2020 law-and-order campaign speeches
Defend monuments/federal property	≥1	2020 campaign speeches

Next we have to move onto the 2024 Campaign.

2024 Campaign Promises

#	2024 Campaign Promise	Trump-source example
1	Seal/secure the southern border	Oct. 9, 2024 — Reading, PA: Trump said that on day one he would “seal the border” and stop the migrant influx. (The American Presidency Project)
2	Stop the “migrant invasion”	Oct. 9 — Reading, PA; Oct. 21 — Concord, NC. (The American Presidency Project)
3	Launch the largest deportation operation in American history	Jul. 31 — Harrisburg, PA; Oct. 9 — Reading, PA; Oct. 15 — Atlanta, GA; Oct. 19 — Latrobe, PA; Oct. 22 — Greensboro, NC. (The American Presidency Project)
4	Immediately deport criminal undocumented immigrants	Jul. 31 — Harrisburg, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
5	Use the Alien Enemies Act against specified foreign gangs	Oct. 19 — Latrobe, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
6	Crush the cartels	Aug. 26 — Detroit, MI. (The American Presidency Project)
7	End migrant crime / remove violent foreign gang members	Aug. 17 — Wilkes-Barre, PA; Oct. 15 — Atlanta, GA. (The American Presidency Project)
8	End inflation	Oct. 9 — Reading, PA; Oct. 21 — Concord, NC; Oct. 22 — Greensboro, NC. (The American Presidency Project)
9	Make America affordable again	Oct. 9 — Reading, PA; Oct. 21 — Concord, NC. (The American Presidency Project)
10	Cut energy prices by 50% within 12 months of taking office	Oct. 18 — Detroit, MI; Oct. 21 — Concord, NC; also promised at Wilkes-Barre. (The American Presidency Project)
11	“Drill, baby, drill” / substantially expand oil and gas production	Oct. 9 — Reading, PA; Oct. 21 — Concord, NC. (The American Presidency Project)
12	Make the United States the dominant energy producer in the world	Oct. 9 — Reading, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
13	Restore energy independence	Oct. 21 — Concord, NC. (The American Presidency Project)
14	Terminate Biden-era electric-vehicle mandates	Jan. 27 — Las Vegas, NV; Aug. 19 — York, PA; Oct. 9 — Reading, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
15	Repeal job-killing Biden-Harris regulations	Aug. 19 — York, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
16	Make the largest regulatory cuts ever	Aug. 19 — York, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
17	No federal income tax on tips	Aug. 17 — Wilkes-Barre, PA; Aug. 19 — York, PA; Oct. 9 — Reading, PA; Oct. 15 — Atlanta, GA; Oct. 22 — Greensboro, NC. (The American Presidency Project)
18	No federal income tax on overtime	Oct. 5 — Butler, PA; Oct. 9 — Reading, PA; Oct. 15 — Atlanta, GA; Oct. 18 — Detroit, MI. (The American Presidency Project)
19	No federal income tax on Social Security benefits	Aug. 19 — York, PA; Oct. 5 — Butler, PA; Oct. 9 — Reading, PA; Oct. 15 — Atlanta, GA; Oct. 19 — Latrobe, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
20	Make the Trump tax cuts permanent	Aug. 17 — Wilkes-Barre, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
21	Deliver additional large tax cuts for workers and small businesses	Aug. 19 — York, PA; Oct. 22 — Greensboro, NC. (The American Presidency Project)
22	Reduce the corporate tax rate to 15% for companies making products in America	Oct. 9 — Reading, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
23	Make interest on qualifying auto loans tax deductible	Oct. 22 — Greensboro, NC. Trump specifically limited this to vehicles manufactured in the United States. (The American Presidency Project)
24	Temporarily cap credit-card interest rates at 10%	Oct. 5 — Butler, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
25	Protect Social Security from cuts	Oct. 5 — Butler, PA; Oct. 9 — Reading, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
26	Protect Medicare from cuts	Oct. 5 — Butler, PA; Oct. 9 — Reading, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
27	Do not raise the Social Security/Medicare retirement age	Oct. 9 — Reading, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
28	Pass a Reciprocal Trade Act / impose matching tariffs	Mar. 2 — Greensboro, NC; Mar. 9 — Rome, GA. Trump described matching another country’s tariff rate. (The American Presidency Project)
29	Use tariffs to prevent companies from moving manufacturing overseas	Aug. 19 — York, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
30	Prevent foreign-built automobiles from undercutting U.S. auto manufacturing	Aug. 19 — York, PA. Trump specifically discussed 100% tariffs on vehicles made in Mexico for the U.S. market. (The American Presidency Project)
31	Stop outsourcing	Oct. 9 — Reading, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
32	Make the United States a manufacturing superpower	Oct. 9 — Reading, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
33	Restore/rebuild the U.S. auto industry	Aug. 19 — York, PA; Oct. 9 — Reading, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
34	Slash federal government waste, fraud and abuse	Oct. 9 — Reading, PA. Trump specifically linked this effort to Elon Musk. (The American Presidency Project)
35	End the Russia-Ukraine war	Jul. 18 — Milwaukee, WI; Oct. 5 — Butler, PA; Oct. 9 — Reading, PA; Oct. 21 — Concord, NC. (The American Presidency Project)
36	End the Russia-Ukraine war before entering office / while president-elect	Oct. 9 — Reading, PA. Earlier in the campaign he had also promised to settle it shortly after winning and before entering the Oval Office. (The American Presidency Project)
37	End the chaos/war in the Middle East	Jul. 18 — Milwaukee, WI; Oct. 5 — Butler, PA; Oct. 21 — Concord, NC. (The American Presidency Project)
38	Prevent World War III	Oct. 5 — Butler, PA; Oct. 9 — Reading, PA; Oct. 21 — Concord, NC. (The American Presidency Project)
39	Strengthen the U.S. military	Aug. 17 — Wilkes-Barre, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
40	Build an American missile-defense “Iron Dome”	Aug. 17 — Wilkes-Barre, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
41	Lead the world in space exploration	Oct. 5 — Butler, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
42	Reach Mars before the end of his term	Oct. 5 — Butler, PA. (The American Presidency Project)
43	Ban schools from promoting critical race theory	Oct. 21 — Concord, NC; Trump said he would act on day one. (The American Presidency Project)
44	Ban schools from promoting what he called “transgender insanity”	Oct. 21 — Concord, NC. (The American Presidency Project)
45	Establish federal policy recognizing two sexes/genders	Oct. 21 — Concord, NC. (The American Presidency Project)
46	Keep transgender women/girls out of women’s sports	Oct. 21 — Concord, NC. (The American Presidency Project)
47	Obtain a nationwide law banning gender-transition surgery/treatment for minors as he described it	Oct. 21 — Concord, NC. Trump specifically promised legislation applying in all 50 states. (The American Presidency Project)
48	Crush/reduce violent crime	Oct. 21 — Concord, NC. (The American Presidency Project)
49	Give police greater support, protection, resources and respect	Oct. 21 — Concord, NC. (The American Presidency Project)

A few points matter for the upcoming kept / partially kept / not kept table. Several campaign promises have already produced concrete legislation. IRS guidance confirms that federal law now provides deductions for qualified tips, qualified overtime, qualifying U.S.-assembled vehicle-loan interest, and an enhanced senior deduction for tax years beginning in 2025. However, the statutory details don’t always equal Trump’s literal campaign wording—for example, “no tax on Social Security” became an additional senior deduction rather than eliminating federal taxation of Social Security benefits outright.

Similarly, current EIA data show that U.S. crude-oil and natural-gas production reached record levels in 2025, but that is distinct from Trump’s much more specific promise to cut energy prices 50% within 12 months. That promise has to be evaluated against actual consumer energy-price data, not merely production.

For immigration, the administration reports very large reductions in illegal border crossings and hundreds of thousands of deportations, but “largest deportation operation in American history” requires comparison with historical removal totals before calling it kept.

Term 2 – Results To Date (2026-08-07)

For this current term, ⬜ Not yet determinable means the promise still has time remaining or the stated end result cannot fairly be judged yet. ChatGPT uses 🟥 Not kept only when a stated deadline has already passed or the promised action clearly failed to occur

#	2024 Campaign Promise	Status as of Aug. 7, 2026	Basis
1	Seal/secure the southern border	🟦 Partially kept	Southwest-border apprehensions and releases have fallen dramatically, including extended periods of zero Border Patrol releases, but the border has not literally been sealed. CBP reported apprehensions down roughly 95% from the prior administration’s average. (Customs and Border Protection)
2	Stop the “migrant invasion”	🟦 Partially kept	Unauthorized crossings have dropped to historically low levels, but illegal entry has not ceased completely. (Customs and Border Protection)
3	Launch the largest deportation operation in American history	⬜ Not yet determinable	A greatly expanded removal operation is underway, but the term is incomplete and available ICE statistics do not yet establish the completed operation as the largest in U.S. history. (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement)
4	Immediately deport criminal undocumented immigrants	🟦 Partially kept	ICE substantially increased arrests and removals, including criminal aliens, but the broadly worded promise is an ongoing operation rather than a completed removal of all targeted individuals. (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement)
5	Use the Alien Enemies Act against specified foreign gangs	🟩 Kept	Trump formally invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Tren de Aragua in March 2025 and removals were subsequently carried out under that policy, although litigation affected procedures. (The White House)
6	Crush the cartels	🟦 Partially kept	Trump designated cartels as terrorist organizations and expanded enforcement against them, but the cartels continue to operate, so the promised end result has not been achieved. (The White House)
7	End migrant crime / remove violent foreign gang members	🟦 Partially kept	Enforcement against Tren de Aragua, MS-13 and other foreign criminal organizations increased substantially, but the promised elimination of migrant-related crime is not a completed result. (The White House)
8	End inflation	🟥 Not kept	Inflation has not ended. CPI was still rising 3.5% year over year in June 2026. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
9	Make America affordable again	⬜ Not yet determinable	This is a broad full-term outcome. Some tax relief has taken effect, but overall consumer prices continue to rise. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
10	Cut energy prices by 50% within 12 months	🟥 Not kept	The 12-month deadline has passed and energy prices were not cut in half. By June 2026 the CPI energy index was actually 15.7% higher than a year earlier; gasoline was up 26.7%. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
11	“Drill, baby, drill” / substantially expand oil and gas production	🟩 Kept	U.S. production reached record levels and the administration expanded federal support for production.
12	Make the United States the dominant energy producer in the world	🟦 Partially kept	U.S. oil and gas production remains exceptionally high, but “dominant energy producer” is broader than a single measurable production target and the term is ongoing.
13	Restore energy independence	🟦 Partially kept	Domestic energy production is high, but the United States continues both importing and exporting energy; literal independence has not been achieved.
14	Terminate Biden-era electric-vehicle mandates	🟩 Kept	The administration reversed or dismantled major Biden-era EV requirements and policies shortly after Trump returned to office.
15	Repeal job-killing Biden-Harris regulations	🟦 Partially kept	Numerous regulations were rescinded or revised, but the broad promise encompasses many regulations and remains ongoing.
16	Make the largest regulatory cuts ever	⬜ Not yet determinable	Trump launched a large deregulation program, including a 10-for-1 regulatory initiative, but whether it ultimately constitutes the “largest” reduction requires a full-term comparison. (The White House)
17	No federal income tax on tips	🟩 Kept	The 2025 tax law created a federal deduction for qualified tip income. Taxpayers began claiming it for tax year 2025. (IRS)
18	No federal income tax on overtime	🟩 Kept	The 2025 tax law created a deduction for qualifying overtime compensation. (IRS)
19	No federal income tax on Social Security benefits	🟦 Partially kept	Congress did not abolish taxation of Social Security itself. Instead, the law created a larger senior deduction that the administration says leaves about 88% of Social Security recipients owing no federal tax on their benefits. (The White House)
20	Make the Trump tax cuts permanent	🟩 Kept	The 2025 tax law permanently extended the individual income-tax rates originally enacted in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. (IRS)
21	Deliver additional large tax cuts for workers and small businesses	🟩 Kept	The 2025 tax law included new worker deductions and permanently extended or expanded multiple individual and small-business tax provisions. (IRS)
22	Reduce corporate tax rate to 15% for companies making products in America	⬜ Not yet determinable	The promised general 15% corporate rate for qualifying domestic manufacturers has not been enacted, but the presidential term has not ended.
23	Make interest on qualifying American-made auto loans tax deductible	🟩 Kept	Federal law now permits eligible taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 annually in qualifying vehicle-loan interest, subject to income and vehicle restrictions. (IRS)
24	Temporarily cap credit-card interest rates at 10%	🟦 Partially kept	Trump directed credit-card companies toward a temporary 10% cap, but a universal statutory 10% ceiling applying to all qualifying accounts has not been fully implemented. (The White House)
25	Protect Social Security from cuts	🟩 Kept to date	No Social Security benefit cut has been enacted during the current term through August 2026. Because the promise spans the entire term, its final status could still change. (The White House)
26	Protect Medicare from cuts	🟩 Kept to date	The major 2025 tax-and-spending law did not reduce Medicare benefits; this remains a continuing commitment through the end of the term. (The White House)
27	Do not raise Social Security/Medicare retirement age	🟩 Kept to date	No increase in the Social Security retirement age or Medicare eligibility age has been enacted during this term through August 2026.
28	Pass a Reciprocal Trade Act / impose matching tariffs	🟦 Partially kept	Trump imposed extensive reciprocal tariffs by executive action beginning in 2025, but Congress has not enacted the specific Reciprocal Trade Act he described. (The White House)
29	Use tariffs to prevent companies moving manufacturing overseas	🟦 Partially kept	Extensive tariffs have been imposed and used as leverage for domestic investment, but the promised broad prevention of offshoring has not yet been achieved. (The White House)
30	Prevent foreign-built automobiles from undercutting U.S. auto manufacturing	🟦 Partially kept	Tariffs and trade measures have been used to protect domestic auto production, but foreign automobiles continue to compete in the U.S. market.
31	Stop outsourcing	⬜ Not yet determinable	Policies intended to discourage outsourcing are in force, but outsourcing has not ended and this is a full-term economic outcome.
32	Make the United States a manufacturing superpower	⬜ Not yet determinable	Domestic-investment policies and tariffs have been implemented, but the promised transformation is a full-term outcome. Current manufacturing employment data do not establish that it has already occurred. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
33	Restore/rebuild the U.S. auto industry	⬜ Not yet determinable	Domestic-production incentives and tariffs are in place, but the broad rebuilding result requires longer-term production and employment evidence.
34	Slash federal government waste, fraud and abuse	🟦 Partially kept	Major spending, staffing and regulatory reductions were undertaken, but the broad promise to eliminate or dramatically slash waste and fraud cannot yet be considered complete.
35	End the Russia-Ukraine war	🟥 Not kept to date	The war remains unresolved. As recently as 2026 U.S. officials were still negotiating for a ceasefire and settlement. (State Department)
36	End the Russia-Ukraine war before entering office / while president-elect	🟥 Not kept	This promise had a specific deadline—before Trump took office on January 20, 2025—and the war continued after that date.
37	End the chaos/war in the Middle East	🟦 Partially kept	Trump secured a Gaza peace framework and subsequent implementation measures, but broader regional hostilities have continued, including conflict involving Iran, Israel and Lebanon. (The White House)
38	Prevent World War III	⬜ Not yet determinable	No world war has occurred, so the promise has been kept to date, but its actual deadline is the end of the presidential term.
39	Strengthen the U.S. military	🟦 Partially kept	Defense investment, readiness initiatives and allied defense commitments have increased, but “strengthen the military” is a continuing full-term commitment. (The White House)
40	Build an American missile-defense “Iron Dome”	🟦 Partially kept	Trump ordered development in January 2025 and subsequently announced the Golden Dome missile-defense system, but the nationwide operational shield has not yet been completed. (The White House)
41	Lead the world in space exploration	⬜ Not yet determinable	Space programs and new policy initiatives are proceeding, but “lead the world” is a broad full-term outcome.
42	Reach Mars before the end of his term	⬜ Not yet determinable	The deadline is January 20, 2029. That deadline has not arrived.
43	Ban schools from promoting critical race theory	🟦 Partially kept	Trump ordered federal agencies to restrict federal support for what the administration defines as discriminatory or radical ideological instruction, but the federal government does not control every state and local school curriculum. (The White House)
44	Ban schools from promoting what Trump called “transgender insanity”	🟦 Partially kept	Executive actions changed federal education and gender policies, but they do not constitute a nationwide prohibition covering all schools. (The White House)
45	Establish federal policy recognizing two sexes	🟩 Kept	Trump’s January 20, 2025 executive order formally established federal executive-branch policy recognizing male and female as the two sexes. (The White House)
46	Keep transgender women/girls out of women’s sports	🟦 Partially kept	Trump signed an executive order directing federal enforcement of this policy, especially under Title IX, but it does not itself create an absolute nationwide statutory ban applying to every sports organization. (The White House)
47	Obtain a nationwide law banning gender-transition surgery/treatment for minors as he described it	⬜ Not yet determinable	Executive action has restricted federal policy and funding in this area, but the specifically promised federal law applying throughout all 50 states has not yet been enacted; the term remains incomplete.
48	Crush/reduce violent crime	⬜ Not yet determinable	This is a broad outcome promise requiring national crime data across the term. It is too early to classify the final result.
49	Give police greater support, protection, resources and respect	🟦 Partially kept	The administration has adopted pro-law-enforcement policies and enforcement initiatives, but this broad promise does not have a single completed statutory outcome.

This post is not evaluating good/bad as that is up for everyone to determine for themselves and their families. This is not an opinion post, it is all verifiable.